BTC cycle CAGR, measured
The whole projection rests on two CAGR families: halving→halving (what a through-the-cycle holder compounded) and bottom→top (the family the cycle bands are quoted in). This tool computes both from real daily closes — full history, keyless sources — so the numbers are measurements, not claims. Pick any window on the chart to see its realized CAGR, then read the fixed-window cycle tables where nobody gets to cherry-pick.
Dashed gold lines = halvings · ● realized cycle top · ○ realized bottom (lowest close after the top).
Cherry-pick freely — that's the point of this panel: start at a top and CAGR looks terrible, start at a bottom and it looks unreal. The per-cycle tables below fix the windows so nobody (including me) gets to choose them.
The projection thesis quotes two CAGR families. Here both are computed from the real closes above, with the decay from each cycle to the next — so the ×0.85 fade assumption can be checked against what actually happened.
Projected band for C4: 85.2–131.5% (mid 108.7%) — realized +62.3%.
Tops and bottoms are the actual max/min closes in each cycle's window (bottom = lowest close after that top) — facts from the data, not the model's fixed 18/30-month offsets. Past cycles guided timing well but overshot on magnitude — Cycle 3 landed ~37% below its headline projection. Treat the level as a wide scenario, not a target. Where the realized decay is steeper than ×0.85, that's shown too — the fade assumption is a thesis, not a law.
CAGR = (end ÷ start)^(1/years) − 1. A smoothed rate — it says nothing about the drawdowns on the way.
Follow the climb — one report a month, losses included →
Educational only, not financial advice. Holdings & any affiliate links disclosed. Feed a rate you believe into the path model →