Seeded from my live portfolio; the sliders are yours after that.
Tweak the sliders to model your path.
90% hold + 10% sleeve, 1% of net worth per trade, swept back at 15%. Tweak any slider to customise.
Scenarios, not forecasts — real paths draw down, and a losing stretch pushes both dates right.
The hold fades by what Bitcoin's completed cycles actually did — not by a forecast's own assumption. That is only two transitions (×0.48 and ×0.68) and they disagree, so treat the fade as a scenario, not a schedule. An earlier version faded by a figure nobody derived; these dates now land later. Check every cycle yourself.
Reaches $1M 4y 4m sooner than plain DCA into the hold (20y 6m).
The red dashed line is plain DCA — the same cash put 100% into the hold with no trading. The gap to the combined line is what the sleeve (and rebalancing) add. The faint amber dotted line is the boring path — illustrative passive DCA — not a forecast: the same cash at a fixed 10%/yr index-style rate, no BTC cycle at all. Flip Y scale → Log to read year-over-year progress.
| Yr | Value | + Added | + Grew | Hold | Sleeve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y0 | $0.00 | — | +$0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Y1 | $14.0k | +$12.0k | +$2,046.96 | $12.7k | $1,387.02 |
| Y2 | $33.7k | +$12.0k | +$7,610.27 | $30.4k | $3,273.38 |
| Y3 | $61.0k | +$12.0k | +$15.4k | $55.2k | $5,838.82 |
| Y4 | $99.3k | +$12.0k | +$26.2k | $89.9k | $9,327.82 |
| Y5→ $100k | $136.4k | +$12.0k | +$25.1k | $122.8k | $13.5k |
| Y6 | $182.5k | +$12.0k | +$34.1k | $164.1k | $18.4k |
| Y7 | $239.7k | +$12.0k | +$45.2k | $214.7k | $25.1k |
| Y8 | $310.9k | +$12.0k | +$59.2k | $276.8k | $34.1k |
| Y9 | $371.8k | +$12.0k | +$48.9k | $325.5k | $46.3k |
| Y10 | $443.5k | +$12.0k | +$59.7k | $380.5k | $63.0k |
Lose 50% in year one, gain 100% in year two. The average of those two years is +25%/yr — and $10,000 is back to exactly $10,000. The average describes the two percentages; it does not describe the money. Compounded, the answer is 0%/yr.
Rates here are compounded, not averaged — the rate you set is the rate you get. Set the hold to 40%/yr and twelve months later it is worth 40% more — not the 48.2% that quoting the rate monthly and compounding it would quietly hand back. The cycle CAGRs behind that base case are measured from real daily closes in the CAGR tool. Unless every year is identical, the average is always the larger of the two — which is exactly why it is the flattering one to print.
A through-the-cycle scenario at fixed assumptions. The BTC cycle can run faster or, with a bear leg, far slower — the hold rate fades cycle-to-cycle (decay), and past cycles overshot headline projections on the way down too.
How long until passive growth outpaces your contribution depends only on the return — the payment cancels out of the math. Bear years stretch it, and it is measured in years, not “a couple of years”. The contribution becomes a choice, never a thing you're told to stop.
The dates above are homework, not promises. The only dates this site claims are the ones stamped on-chain.
The hold-rate assumption behind this model, checked against real daily closes — measurements, not claims.
DCA projection & credit vs. invest — run them on the plan page →